Popsci has rolled out a new feature on it's site that allows betting virtual money on futures of technology-related items. I recently started a new account, and it's amazing how much a little common sense can do for you. I only wish that this was real money, because I happen to be very sure about some things.
Most of the futures are pretty trivial, but some are quite interesting. For instance, one future that I sought out was wether the first 10 missions of Virgin Galactic would go without a fatal accident. Surprisingly, only 52% of people believed that it would. Virgin would recognise the risk of a fatality and would not offer the service unless they were very, very sure that all would go well. At least, I hope.
It will be interesting to see how a lot of this stuff pans out. I'm betting against ethanol-related futures, as well as those for stem cells, which is going against the grain of their online market pretty severely. Other things are also going to be great, such as Bird Flu being contracted in America by the end of 2007. That market will crash, and when it does, my covers are going to make me rich.
